The groundhogs have spoken and the results seem to be a mixed bag on whether it’s time to check the horizon for spring weather.
Plenty of Canadians were watching the celebrities of the mid-winter tradition of Groundhog Day this morning, to hear whether there will be six more weeks of unpredictable winter weather or the dawning of spring to lift the chilly temperatures.
Several groundhogs across North America were roused from their hibernation early, with gathered crowds watching to see whether the burrowing animals would emerge from their homes and catch a glimpse of their shadow.
With a handful of experts in Canada, the results were not unanimous.
Shubenacadie Sam, the groundhog expert in Halifax, N.S., was the earliest riser this morning and reportedly saw his shadow — predicting six more weeks of winter.
However, Wiarton Willie in Ontario and Fred la Marmotte in Quebec both spent their morning shadow-free — predicting an early spring.
As a tie-breaker, Pennsylvania’s Puntsuntawney Phil — who was featured in the 1993 film Groundhog Day and so could be considered an ultimate authority on the tradition — emerged from his burrow shadowless this morning, to predict an early spring.
By consensus, it seems the furry meteorologists are predicting an early spring this year.
Groundhog Day is a light-hearted tradition across Canada and the United States, and the animal’s accuracy is always something that catches attention.
According to statistics, Puntsuntawney Phil generally has an accuracy rate of about 40 per cent, while Shubenacadie Sam boasts an accuracy rate of 45 per cent and Wiarton Willy with 25 per cent. Also, in the past, groundhog predictions of an early spring have generally tended to be wrong, while predictions of an extended winter have been more accurate.
For those feeling a bit skeptical about the prediction for early spring this year, the Old Farmer’s Almanac might be able to help.
The long range forecast from the Almanac does actually predict that February will be about 2 C below average and March will be 4 C below average, although there are predictions of snow right through both months.
February is said to have precipitation 15 millimeters above average and March 30mm above average, with a snowstorm expected at the end of the month.
It sounds as though perhaps Shubenacadie Sam might be onto something, despite being outnumbered by other furry experts across the country.
