Holy Trinity Catholic School Division expects student enrolment to decrease by 13 pupils by 2027 compared to today’s numbers, although its provincial grants — tied to enrolment — will likely continue to increase.
There were 2,345 students enrolled as of Sept. 30, 2022, while a new five-year projection predicts that number will be 2,346 by September 2023, 2,355 by September 2024, 2,360 by September 2025, 2,344 by September 2026 and 2,332 by September 2027.
Moreover, from 2022 to 2032, the division expects 70 fewer students in its schools.
Meanwhile, the division’s total revenues as of Sept. 30, 2022, were $27.05 million, while a five-year financial projection predicts revenues will increase to $31 million in 2027.
Provincial grants are based on enrolment figures and are the division’s largest revenue source. That money is expected to increase to $24.5 million in 2027-28 from $21.3 million in 2022-23.
Division administration presented the five-year enrolment and financial projections during the recent board meeting.
Holy Trinity has used a “pretty reliable” software program since 2018 called Baragar Demographics to assist with enrolment projections, explained CFO Curt Van Parys.
The division shares the information with principals and asks for feedback because there could be issues in those communities that the software doesn’t capture, such as immigration or housing developments.
Once the division office receives that feedback, it will review the data to determine whether tweaks are required to future enrolment projections, said Van Parys.
There was an average of 623 births per year within the school division’s boundaries from 2005 to 2018, but during the last three years, that average was 563 births per year, he continued. This is a decrease of 60 births or a drop of 9.63 per cent.
The data shows that there were 546 births in 2020 and 592 births in 2021, an increase of 46 or 8.42 per cent.
Saskatchewan’s population cracked 1.2 million in December, while the provincial government’s goal is to increase that number to 1.4 million by 2030, which means enrolment projections will be important, he continued. Baragar is a “very reliable tool” that will provide annual updates during the next 15 years.
“Enrolment drives revenues. There’s no other way to put it … ,” Van Parys added.
Holy Trinity will need a 2.91-per-cent increase in provincial funding in 2023-24 to have a balanced budget, Van Parys’ report said. It will also need increases of 2.49 per cent to 3.63 per cent during the next five years to ensure a balanced budget.
The division’s operating budget during the past seven fiscal years spent $155.8 million on salaries and benefits and $38.2 million in goods and services, the report continued.
Post-pandemic bargaining could be a challenge, based on the experiences of CUPE in Ontario last year, the document noted. That union acquired a new four-year agreement with average wage increases of 3.59 per cent per year. How that affects Saskatchewan bargaining remains to be seen.
Van Parys noted that he was concerned about expenses considering 80 per cent is tied to salaries and benefits. That means the division’s projections must consider public sector settlements since the province funds teachers’ renewed contracts but not support staff contracts.
His calculations showed that teacher salaries are projected to increase between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent during the next five years, while support staff salaries are likely to increase between 2.25 per cent and 3.5 per cent during the same period.
Meanwhile, building maintenance costs are expected to increase by 6.75 per cent and 6.25 per cent during the next two years because of the joint-use school project and renovations to École St. Margaret School, he said. Those numbers should decline to two per cent by 2027-28.
“That’s my best look at a crystal ball (prediction), and some of that crystal ball is a little opaque,” Van Parys added. “ … it’s my best estimate in terms of what the financial future of our school division holds.”
The next Holy Trinity board meeting is Monday, Feb. 13.
