Re-election of the Saskatchewan Party government should not have surprised anyone.
Canadian voters tend to toss out governments for three specific reasons.
One, a scandal where the stink raises conscience well above the usual level of self-service voters are willing to put up with. Examples, the advertising scandal that took down the federal Liberals and the arrogance of the Alberta Conservatives when the NDP won.
The only scandal facing this government was some lingering doubts about the Global Transportation Hub land deals after the RCMP didn’t find enough evidence to prosecute.
Two, a faltering economy where government gets blamed for the performance. Saskatchewan is in a relative boom compared with the rest of the country. This province has the second-highest median family income of 10 provinces with unemployment rates consistently among the lowest in Canada.
Third, voters feel a government is tired, out of touch and choose an opposing party. The election defeating the last NDP regime in Saskatchewan is a case where, even though tax cuts and incentives for potash investment were passed, voters wanted change after 13 years.
Voters obviously didn’t feel that way, handing the Saskatchewan Party a fourth four-year term with a record setting fourth mandate by almost two-thirds of voters.
Meanwhile, the New Democrats spun their wheels electorally, actually losing seats, although mail-in ballots and recounts may change standings a little.
Toppling a popular government is difficult when times are good, when there is no meaty scandal.
Toppling a popular government when the opposition has a fragmented organization and has lost touch with half the ridings is even more challenging.
NDP candidates in almost half the ridings were last-minute appointments, reflecting a lack of party organization and planning.
That most of those last-minute appointments were from rural ridings is no surprise. The NDP burned its rural bridges just over a generation ago when dealing with a Conservative deficit forced closure of 52 rural hospitals and numerous schools.
Rural voters have memories like elephants, subscribing to the Biblical story about a father’s sins spreading to future generations.
The NDP need to re-invent the party to become relevant. In an economy where 75 years of growth and social programs have lifted the majority out of subsistence incomes and provided public medicine and other social supports, policies urging more social programs are less attractive.
Re-building a party when two of the last three leaders lost their seats and this current leader in in danger of being the third becomes difficult.
The most surprising aspect of this election was the chipping away at Saskatchewan Party support by the Buffalo Party (Wexit) and the Progressive Conservatives.
The new Buffalo Party ran only 17 candidates but gained 2.9 per cent of the vote and came second in four Saskatchewan Party strongholds.
Had the Buffalo Party run 61 candidates the percentage may have been greater. The party has one issue: get us out of Canada. Premier Scott Moe, in his acceptance speech, told Buffalo Party supporters they will be be heard.
The Progressive Conservatives ran 32 candidates and gained almost a full percentage point in votes over 2016.
The nearly five per cent of the centre-right vote gained by these parties poses a slowly-growing threat to the Saskatchewan Party.
Regrettably, the elected opposition is small, too small for healthy debate and deep diving to expose the issues.
With a fourth term and a fourth time, the Saskatchewan party has captured nearly two of every three voters; the temptation will be strong to pursue partisan goals such as sale of Crown Corporations to pay down debt or some dismantling of public health care.
Ron Walter can be reached at [email protected]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of this publication.
