The Saskatchewan Health Authority has released an updated model of COVID-19 data, as the spread of the virus slows in the majority of Saskatchewan.
The new model is based on information gathered from the current rate of infection within Saskatchewan and shows a significant decrease in the numbers originally used to inform the province’s readiness plan earlier this month.
SHA officials first released modelling data on April 8, which indicated that based on a mid-range infection rate of 3.12 people per individual, Saskatchewan could see a total of 335,000 cases of COVID-19, over 2,700 individuals in hospital, and 6,800 deaths from the virus.
Now, new data shows that the province’s current effective reproduction number — or the number of individuals one person will infect with the virus — is actually 0.7 and the projected scenario is closer to 255,000 infections, 1,700 individuals in hospital, and about 3,000 deaths.
Previous modelling data was based on numbers from other places, such as China and other parts of Canada because SHA officials had no history of the virus within Saskatchewan.
The new numbers have been calculated using Saskatchewan data, said the SHA, and continuously refined since the virus has been active in the province.
“This new data brings with it cautious optimism,” Saskatchewan Health Authority CEO Scott Livingstone said in a press release. “Thanks to the Saskatchewan people's efforts and our own robust actions on testing, contact tracing and other public health measures, we are flattening the curve and helping ensure our health system can manage the surge in demand that may come from COVID-19.”
Using this new reproductive number and model, the SHA will be adjusting it’s planning scenarios accordingly while also continuing to “plan for the worst, while aiming for the best.”
This includes maximizing the province’s testing capacity even further, speeding up contact tracing to stay ahead of the curve when possible, and continuing to adjust SHA service to reduce spread by contact.
“If we don’t stay flat, we know we'll have to back off what we're doing in respect to services, and we may have to inflict restrictions again,” said Livingstone, in a news conference on April 28.
The SHA is still preparing to see a surge in cases, and are still preparing activation of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 hospitals in two stages.
At the same time, the SHA is using the new data to develop the plan to re-open community surgeries, elective surgeries, and diagnostics in the near future, with a staged approach.
The SHA urges Saskatchewan residents to continue washing hands and social distancing to help continue to flatten the curve.
“While we support the province's plan for gradually re-opening the province, it is a critical time to remind Saskatchewan residents that this will be a phased process where we still need our citizens to be vigilant and practice the same precautions that have proven effective to date,” said Saskatchewan Health Authority Chief Medical Officer Dr. Susan Shaw in a press release.
The updated Readiness Plan can be found at saskatchewan.ca/COVID19.
