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Pig spleen prognosticator predicts a ‘big snow event’ for end of February

Jeff Woodward, from the Gull Lake area, has been using porcine spleens to predict the weather for the last 12 years. He took over from his late uncle Gus Wickstrom, who was well-known as the pig spleen weather forecaster for decades

When it comes to predicting the weather, who would you rather trust: meteorologists with so-so track records or a pig spleen prognosticator whose predictions prove to be more accurate?

Jeff Woodward, from the Gull Lake area, has been using porcine spleens to predict the weather for the last 12 years. He took over from his late uncle Gus Wickstrom, who was well-known as the pig spleen weather forecaster for decades.

Wickstrom became a celebrity in his hometown of Tompkins and even appeared on The Daily Show to talk about his hobby. He died in 2008.

More accurate than everyone else

To engage in pig spleen prognostications is entertaining, Woodward said on Feb. 6. He enjoys the social aspect of talking to people during the annual prediction parties.

With a laugh, he said his predictions are more accurate than those of Environment Canada (EC). In general, the spleens get the warm and cold aspects of winter correct compared to EC’s long-range forecasts. They also do much better with the weather cycles and temperature swings, but not the short-term weekly outcomes.

“I think if you did an analysis of it, you would see (the spleens are) 80- to 90-per-cent accurate versus Environment Canada’s … 55-per-cent (accuracy), which is just a little bit better than tossing a coin,” he said.

It’s party time

Each year Woodward holds a pig spleen party to make his forecasts. This past November, he held the party at the farm of his aunt and uncle Lynette and Del Collier to predict the weather in 2020. The spleens came from free-range pigs raised near Gull Lake.

The spleens had plenty of fat on them in two bands, which meant Saskatchewan would see a colder winter and more snow than average. The webs of fat showed the temperatures would be erratic again, with periods of deep cold followed by warmer weather.

Forecasts for January and February

Woodward’s prediction for January was pretty good, he said. He was slightly nervous since he forecasted that winter would be cold but with various temperature swings. The warm weather lasted longer than he thought, but then the cold spell aligned with his predictions.

He believes his forecasts will get back on track for February. The month was supposed to start warm but dip to below normal temperatures quickly. Snow is supposed to happen around Feb. 10, while sleet and freezing rain could happen around Feb. 13 to 15 and again later in the month. The end of the month is expected to see “the big snow event of the year.”

Woodward makes his determinations by looking at the spleen’s thickness and dividing it equally into six strips for January to June. The temperature is measured in the thickness and the precipitation by the fat. The places where the fat is very thick indicate cold weather or precipitation events.

“What I usually do is create a graph of the different characteristics and then translate that into what it means for the weather,” he said.

There is always uncertainty in looking at the spleens, Woodward continued. Since none of the spleens are ever the same, he look at several spleens — usually four or five — and then figures out what the average might be.

Woodward attempts to align when the weather events might happen with Jan. 1, and depending on where the fat is, that could give the approximate date of those events during the next six months.

Family tradition

This is a family tradition stretching back several hundred years to when Woodward’s ancestors lived in Sweden, he explained. As farmers who raised hogs, they butchered a pig before each winter to determine what the weather might be.

They noticed that the spleen had varying amounts of fat and deposits on it, which they believed showed the weather for which the hog was preparing.

When Woodward’s family came to Saskatchewan, his grandfather and father would jokingly predict the weather every time they butchered the animals. At some point, Wickstrom decided to rejuvenate the tradition and take it seriously.

“I would say my Uncle Gus was very good. He did some predictions that were very outlandish — snow in June and things like that — and they came true,” Woodward told CBC two years ago. “My predictions probably haven't been quite as good as his, but ... they’re always better than the long-range forecast from the scientific organizations.”

Woodward does not make predictions for July to December since the spleens he receives are only good for January to June. Traditionally, pigs in Sweden prepared for winter by fattening up. Swedes were only concerned about the forthcoming winter and had no problems with the summer.  

Woodward is not the only pig spleen prognosticator in Saskatchewan; there are at least three others who make predictions irregularly. With a chuckle, he joked that they should form their own club.

Future forecast

Woodward has predicted the following for the months of March/April and May/June:

March/April
The end of February or the first part of March should see the biggest snowstorm of the winter. Temperatures in March will still tend toward cold until about March 20. After that temperatures will return to average, with daytime weather being -2 C to 5 C and will remain that way until the end of the month.

Snow days include “the big one” on March 1, followed by more precipitation on March 10, April 2 and April 20. The end of March will be cold but have low precipitation. The variable temperature will likely melt most of the snow early.

April will start cooler than normal and gradually warm to average near the end of the month. Expect the weather to be quite unsettled with plenty of wind into the month of May.

May/June
Temperatures in May will be average with little precipitation. The cooler temperatures and low precipitation will provide a good opportunity for seeding, but it will likely be very dry.

The period between the snow melting and spring rains coming will be dry and windy, so residents should be aware of possible spring fires. There will be only intermittent and local rains during this time until mid-June. Temperatures will remain relatively cool, but rain is predicted for June 15.

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