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It’s too early to identify trends in crime data despite big decreases, police say

The Moose Jaw Police Service presented the January crime data during the recent police board meeting.
statistics
Analyzing statistics.

January’s crime statistics show a decrease in offences against people and property, but the police chief says it’s too early to infer much from those drops or identify any noticeable patterns.

“This is a one-month (look at the data). With the decreases, we’re happy to see them, but this is only a snapshot,” Chief Rick Bourassa said during the Board of Police Commissioners’ Feb. 15 meeting. “We can’t determine trends now, but later in the year is when we normally can.”

While Jan. 1 might be considered an “arbitrary start point” for a new year, police were monitoring trends at the end of 2023 and how they flowed into 2024, he stated. 

The organization will continue to monitor the numbers, and if, after a few months, it sees the same type of “anomalous” data, it will investigate further to determine what’s going on and see what it needs to do to respond properly, Bourassa continued. 

“At what point does something go from being a data point to a trend? I wish I could give you a better answer … ,” he said. 

However, if, for example, the decrease in property crimes continues, that could indicate that either people aren’t reporting those offences or there is a reduction and officers need to determine what changed to make that happen.

“Very often, we don’t have the answers to that, but it keeps us looking,” Bourassa added.

Crimes against the person

Data for crimes against the person in January 2024, 2023 and 2022 show:

  • Homicide: 0 / 0 / 0
  • Attempted murder: 0 / 0 / 0
  • Assaults (sexual, common, with a weapon, aggravated, against police): 24 / 27 / 23
  • Robbery: 2 / 0 / 1
  • Total: 32 / 35 / 36; a year-over-year reduction of 8.6 per cent

Notably, with assaults, sexual assaults jumped 125 per cent due to nine incidents this January versus four last January, while assaults with a weapon increased 150 per cent due to five incidents versus two. 

Crimes against property

Data for crimes against property in January 2024, 2023 and 2022 show:

  • Break-ins (business, residence, other): 17 / 19 / 23
  • Theft of vehicles: 7 / 2 / 9; a year-over-year increase of 250 per cent
  • Thefts over $5,000: 2 / 3 / 0
  • Thefts under $5,000: 30 / 85 / 50; a decrease of 64.7 per cent
  • Arson: 0 / 0 / 1
  • Mischief under $5,000: 8 / 23 / 14; a decrease of 65.2 per cent
  • Total: 84 / 175 / 124; a year-over-year decrease of 52 per cent

Other incidents

Comparative data from 2024, 2023 and 2022 show:

  • Impaired driving: 5 / 5 / 9
  • Failing to comply with court orders: 49 / 41 / 66
  • Threats: 2 / 3 / 7
  • Domestic dispute: 8 / 6 / 5
  • Provincial liquor infractions: 7 / 14 / 10
  • Vehicle collisions over $1,000: 33 / 22 / 25
  • Summary offence tickets: 190 / 182 125
  • Drugs (cocaine, cannabis, meth, other CDSA drugs): 1 / 2 / 5
  • Calls for service: 1,400 / 1,495 / 1,115

The next police board meeting is Wednesday, March 13. 

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