Holy Trinity Catholic School Division expects student enrolment to increase by 30 students by 2028 compared to today’s numbers, with immigration into Saskatchewan projected to drive that growth.
There were 2,444 students enrolled as of Sept. 30, 2023, while a new five-year projection predicts that number will be 2,483 by the same date in 2024, 2,502 by 2025, 2,478 by 2026, 2,479 by 2027 and 2,474 by 2028.
Overall, from 2023 to 2038, the division expects four fewer students in its schools.
Meanwhile, the division’s total revenues as of Sept. 30, 2023, were $28.4 million, while the five-year projection predicts revenues will increase to $31.8 million in 2028.
Provincial grants are based on enrolment figures and are the division’s largest revenue source. That money is expected to increase to $25.2 million in 2028 from $22.5 million this year.
Division administration presented the five-year enrolment and financial projections during the recent board meeting.
Enrolment growth
Birth rates, immigration and “capture rate or market share” are factors that influence enrolment numbers, explained CFO Curt Van Parys. The organization uses Baragar demographic software to assist with enrolment projections, and last year, amended the contract to include immigration data annually instead of every two years for more accurate information.
The birth rate has experienced dips during the past five years, as women within the division boundaries have had 29 fewer children per year, he pointed out.
Between 2006 and 2019 — in which the currently enrolled group of students was born — the number of births per year averaged 622 annually, Baragar data shows. During the past three years, however, births have averaged 547 annually, a decrease of 75 or 12.06 per cent.
In 13 years, this decline means there could be 300 fewer students enrolled, said Van Parys. However, immigration and the capture rate could offset this decline. This means there could be 40 more students per year in the future compared to the previous figure of 14.
More people have left Saskatchewan than are being born here, which means immigration is the main driver of population growth, said trustee Derek Hassen, pointing to the many cultures present at St. Agnes School as an example. While this can be positive, it also puts pressure on schools to offer language services.
“I’m just hopeful senior admin is taking that into consideration of the supports that we’re going to need … ,” he added.
Finances
Van Parys reviewed the division’s projected finances over the next five years. He noted that for Holy Trinity to have a balanced budget, it would need an increase in provincial grants of 3.63 per cent in 2024-25, 0.96 per cent in 2025-26, 2.49 per cent in 2026-27, 2.26 per cent in 2027-28 and 2.24 per cent in 2028-29.
Meanwhile, division administration completed an initial assessment to quantify the cash flow effect associated with the École St. Margaret School capital project and found cash flows should normalize once the division completes the project in April 2025, he said.
While the Ministry of Education plans to pay most of the $6.6 million price tag, the division must use maintenance funding to cover the rest.
The division must also prepare for two school board elections in the next half-decade, with Van Parys projecting that the election this fall will cost $47,775 and the election in 2029 to cost $52,375.
With physical plant operations, the division office has made projection adjustments for 2025-26 and beyond to reflect the closure of Sacred Heart and St. Mary schools and completion of the St. Margaret project, said Van Parys.
“I have not built into the projection model any financial impact of the carbon tax cost adjustments … because I don’t know the details of how that’s going to work for us and what the impact will be on school divisions,” he added.
The next Holy Trinity board meeting is Monday, Feb. 12.
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