So what’s ahead for business and investors in the year 2021?
Most analysts from a wide range of corporations and governments predict a return to near-normal by year end. The thinking is based on achieving control of the pandemic through mass vaccinations by the fourth quarter and the unleashing pent up demand as people return to normal pursuits — visiting family, restaurants, bars, and resorts.
There will be long-lasting, long-term influences form the pandemic: increased online purchases of everything from food to hardware as well as larger numbers of work from home employees.
These analyses all seem reasonable but rely on one factor — mass vaccinations and effective vaccines. No one knows how long the vaccines will be effective.
Certainly if the mutation of COVID-19 found in southern England spreads, as is expected, there is no telling what will happen.
From a personal out-on-a-limb perspective, the planet is in for another year of stop and go economies as leaders wrestle with balancing dying business sectors with dying voters.
The second wave assailing now appears to be more deadly than the first. A third wave could occur if too many people fatigued by social distancing and lack of human contact decide to break the rules set up by health and political leaders to protect the population.
Stock market price levels have soared into thin air from euphoria created by investors believing vaccinations have resolved the grave health issue.
Those markets will show volatility as investors one day fear the vaccines aren’t being distributes fast enough, then the next buy on hopes of a quick end to the pandemic. Sudden bankruptcies or disclosures of business issues will rock the market along with days of optimism. Fear and greed will continue to rule the market with prices moved by uncertainty.
Sometime before or by late spring the market will plunge as investors decide the scene isn’t as sunny as was thought.
By fall, the market may resume that upward trend as investors foresee a recovery in six months.
All of this, of course, depends on whether the mass vaccinations are widespread and have the expected effect.
Happy New Year to all!
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of this publication.
