Catholic division seeing nearly 100 more students this year than projected

Enrolment figures continue to go up, up, up in Holy Trinity Catholic School Division, as the number of students attending a Catholic school this year is nearly 100 more than projected.

There were 2,437 students attending one of nine division schools as of Sept. 26, which is an increase of 91 students — or 3.9 per cent — more than projected. That total figure is also 92 more than the enrolment count on Sept. 30, 2022.  

School principals and the Ministry of Education had projected in June that total enrolment could be 2,400 students. 

“We are experiencing very healthy enrolment numbers in Holy Trinity,” Curt Van Parys, chief financial officer, said during the Sept. 26 board meeting. 

While the ministry typically provides operational at the start of a school year, the ministry adjusts that funding in December based upon Sept. 30 enrolments and whether they increased or decreased, he continued.

“So definitely good news with what we’re experiencing here,” Van Parys added. 

Holy Trinity uses software called Baragar Demographics that predicts enrolment numbers, and during a recent discussion with the company, the CFO asked why the software’s projections were way off — but “up in a good way.”

The company said the discrepancy occurred because the software only updated numbers on new immigrants every two years. So, while renewing the software agreement, division administration also ensured immigration data was captured every year.

“So … this is a lovely problem to have to be four-per-cent higher than projection,” Van Parys added. 

Ward Strueby, director of education, agreed that it was a “great day” in Holy Trinity to have a higher enrolment, considering division administration regularly prepares for numbers to possibly decline in September. 

The division would be forced to cut staff if enrolment numbers declined, which would negatively affect existing teachers and create a spiral in morale, he continued. Administration normally reacts to “pressure points” in schools by adding staff, but so far, it hasn’t had to do that.

The province may provide additional money to target immigrant students, and if it does, division administration will create an operational plan about where to spend the funding and present it to the board, said Strueby. 

He added that seven of eight Saskatchewan Catholic divisions saw enrolment growth this year, which shows more parents want their kids to receive a faith-based education. 

Holy Trinity is seeing more immigrant students each year, which usually means division staff must conduct language assessments — 70 as of Sept. 26 — on the new pupils to determine their English abilities, said Sarah Phipps, superintendent of learning. 

These assessments should ideally occur “before a child puts a bum in a seat” but typically happen within the first two weeks of the new school year, she continued. There is then a lull before another influx of immigrant students occurs in December and the spring.

“It does put quite a bit of pressure on our schools when you get all these, but it’s great to know that they’ve got communities and our (settlement workers) are advocating for our schools,” Phipps said. 

“So it’s just a matter of wrapping around these kiddos and supporting them in their transition to Canada, to Moose Jaw, to winter, to school in English.”
 
Van Parys noted that the Baragar software relies on birth rates to predict demographics, so one thing that concerned him was the expected low kindergarten population. 

A discussion with the software company revealed birth rates “tanked” during the pandemic, which could affect the division in the coming years, he said. Immigration could offset that decline, but only time will tell if natural birth rates normalize after the pandemic.

While kindergarten numbers have declined everywhere, Phipps thought those numbers would spike again soon based on the number of families with young children attending events. 

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