Division administration has projected that 2,342 students from prekindergarten to Grade 12 will attend one of the nine schools by Sept. 30, 2021. This will likely include 161 students who will temporarily learn from home and could return to a physical school building once the pandemic is over.
In comparison, there were 2,301 students enrolled in Holy Trinity as of Sept. 30, 2020 — the division had predicted enrolment of 2,432 students — and 2,399 students enrolled as of Sept. 30, 2019.
The division office has predicted that in Moose Jaw by next September, 66 students will attend Phoenix Academy, 274 will attend Sacred Heart Elementary School, 344 students will attend St. Agnes School, 204 will attend St. Margaret School, 125 will attend St. Mary School, 313 will attend St. Michael School and 417 students will attend Vanier Collegiate.
The division office uses a data projection program that predicts how many students could enrol over 15 years, although the division typically focuses on the upcoming year and the next five years, explained Sean Chase, director of education, during the January board of education meeting.
Division office staff take that data and compare it to information that knowledge keepers have about their communities. Chase then shares the projections with school principals to see if there are any “anomalies” compared to what they usually see.
“(This is the) toughest year for us to address this given the pandemic scenario,” said Chase, indicating this was seen in the fall when the division conducted a survey to discover why 131 students failed to show up in September. “We feel pretty confident in where these numbers are right now and what we’ve submitted to the ministry for that overall 2,342 (enrolment number).”
The biggest gap occurred at Phoenix Academy, he continued. The division found it difficult to quantify how many students usually attend but did not show up due to the pandemic. Some of these youths — who can attend until age 22 — are disenfranchised learners and face challenges in their personal lives, which might prevent them from coming to school.
“The staff there have been doing a great job of reaching out and will continue to do so in terms of the registration process,” said Chase. “But we’re pretty conservative with our number of 66 students there compared to recent years where that Phoenix number has reached in the number of 96.”
Overall, the division’s enrolment numbers are similar to where they were two years ago, he added. Projections for kindergarten and Grade 1 have held up well and are on target by 98 per cent, compared to the school divisions in Saskatoon and Regina, where projects have been largely off-target.
The next Holy Trinity board of education meeting is Monday, Feb. 8.
